Crystal Palace vs Manchester United
To the average football fan, this would probably look like an away win, but I'm predicting that the home side will not be beaten, and what makes this shock even more shocking is that the data backs my decision.
Palace are unbeaten since their loss to Champions Manchester City, which includes wins at Anfield, plus three points against Newcastle and West Ham.
And with only one victory – over relegated Sheffield United – in their last six, the Red Devils sit 17th in the Form Table since Matchday 30, which means their hosts have a 42 per cent chance of victory.
United have now gone six games without a clean sheet, and with only one shutout in eleven league matches, the pressure is beginning to mount on manager Erik ten Hag. But this is not an anomaly.
Following the resumption of play after the international break, the side has an xGC per 90 of 2.3, which is the highest in the Premier League: Luton are =20th with the Red Devils since the turn of the year, so the writing has been on the wall for a while.
These terrible defensive performances, combined with issues in attack, see the side scrambling for a European qualifying spot, where once they seemed nailed.
In stark contrast, Palace have become one of the league's most exciting teams. Since the beginning of April, the Eagles have had 17 Big Chances (5th), creating sixteen of those (1st) following the return of Michael Olise and Eberechi Eze.
Expect goals and an entertaining match-up, and with Premier League odds against, the value lies with the home side.
Chelsea vs West Ham United
The Blues welcome London rivals West Ham to Stamford Bridge, but first, they must overcome Tottenham on Thursday evening, which makes this a tough call.
The Blues are battling an extensive injury list, with fourteen players currently sidelined, and undoubtedly this has impacted performances.
Results have been inconsistent throughout the campaign, and since a six-nil hammering of Everton, the side was on the receiving end of a five-star masterclass at Arsenal. Therefore, we have uncertainty about which Chelsea team will turn up after another false dawn…
But with one win in eight, West Ham are hardly pulling up trees as their charge for a European spot falters.
However, with only three fixtures left, it is now or never for David Moyes, and with City on the final day, they will need back-to-back wins to give them any chance of securing a Europa place.
The Hammers will take encouragement from the Blues' defensive frailties – 12 goals conceded (18th) in five games – with opportunities expected from both open play and the dead ball.
Burnley vs Newcastle United
This game has the potential to be one of the most exciting clashes of the weekend as Newcastle push for Europe on the back of 15 goals in their last six fixtures, with a striker, Alexander Isak, pushing Erling Haaland for the Golden Boot.
Despite the good recent form of Burnley, the expectation is that the Magpies will take the three points despite their indifferent away form this season (15th).
Newcastle have gelled in attack, with Isak grabbing the headlines with a hot streak that has returned seven goals in his last six appearances, although none of those have been on the road.
The return of Harvey Barnes has provided another attacking threat, and with Anthony Gordon alongside as part of a three, opportunities are plentiful. Isak has managed 20 shots from inside the box over this period (3rd), with eight goal involvements (2nd) and 10 Big Chances (1st).
On the other hand, Burnley have steadied the ship, giving themselves an outside chance of beating the drop: the Clarets are only two points away from safety and the game against Forest on the final day at Turf Moor could be crucial to their survival.
Over their last six games, the side sits fourth for goals against (7), although there has been no clean sheet since December. Their efforts have been commendable, losing just one of eight, including draws at Stamford Bridge and Old Trafford, with a much-needed win at Bramall Lane sandwiched in between.
However, even though their Premier League relegation odds have begun to drift slightly, they are still massive favourites to drop down to the second tier.
Aston Villa vs Brighton and Hove Albion
This is another match-up that I have chosen with a high probability of goals. However, the caveat is that Villa have a Europa Conference League semi-final tie to play before they face Brighton.
But outstanding fixtures aside, the hosts will fancy their chances with a need for victory to maintain their Champions League hopes combined with the Seagulls' end-of-season malaise that has seen them treading water recently.
Victory on Sunday would almost guarantee a Top 4 finish if results go their way, and Villa will be looking to get the job done early with a possible place in the Europa Conference League final awaiting them.
Unai Emery has already stated that he will not be prioritising one competition over the other, so three points will allow him to manage his squad accordingly with potentially six matches remaining.
For Brighton, Roberto De Zerbi will be glad to see the end of this season, which started with much promise.
A sixth-place finish in 2022-23 elevated expectations, but following the summer transfers of Robert Sanchez, Moises Caicedo, and Alexis Mac Allister, the Seagulls season fell apart as the rigours of league and European football began to take its toll.
Long-term injuries meant Solly March, Kaoru Mitoma and Pervis Estupinan have missed a large chunk of the campaign, and despite their progression to the knockout phase of the Europa League – losing to Roma – their league form has nosedived with just one win in nine.
Brighton are one of the league's biggest underperformers for xG conceded, and this bodes well for Aston Villa and Ollie Watkins, who sits two goals behind Haaland in the race for the Golden Boot.
However, in terms of his overall contribution, and goal involvements, no one comes close - 36 in thirty-four matches – which makes the in-form striker a shoo-in for the Euros this summer.
*Credit for all of the photos in this article belongs to Alamy*
